The Caucuses are Coming!
For the inaugural (real) post of my blog, I had to talk about what can't help to be one of the top stories of 2008. Of course, I'm speaking of the Presidential election. For those who don't follow these things very closely, the election season kicks off Thursday (January 3) with the Iowa caucuses. Despite the fact that our national election is still eleven months away, one can make a reasonable argument that we may well know who our next president will be within the next few weeks, if not days.
Okay, we won't know who the next president will be, because there's always a chance for unforeseen circumstances to arise. However, given the likely hostile environment to be faced by the Republican nominee, and the ridiculous fundraising advantages enjoyed by Democrats in general over the past year or so (particularly the numbers put up by Clinton and Obama), it's fair to say the odds favor the eventual Democratic nominee, though of course this is far from assured. The Democratic nominee (and likely the Republican as well) will be almost certainly known by the end of the day on February 5th which, in addition to being my 32nd birthday, is also the day that a huge number of states representing over a quarter of all delegates to the national conventions will hold their primaries. In actuality, we will probably know much sooner. This is because the huge role Iowa and New Hampshire play in choosing our presidential nominees. Yes, it's absurd that two small, predominantly white and rural states basically choose our options for President, but that's a rant for another post. You only need to go back four years for a prime example.
In 2004, Howard Dean was leading nationally and in New Hampshire by significant margins, but faced a tough battle in Iowa. One third place finish and a "scream," followed by a quick fade and disappointing loss in New Hampshire 10 days later, and Dean was toast (on the other hand, a second-place finish in Iowa propelled John Edwards to a win in South Carolina and the eventual vice-presidential nod).
So, suffice it to say, we'll know a great deal about the eventual Democratic nominee in just a few short days. The Republican situation is a bit more complicated, and this post is already looking to be a bit long-winded, so I'll save that for a future post. Hopefully I'll get a chance to write it before Iowanstake to the polls gather to horse-trade their votes. Yeah, that's another thing. Iowa does not have a direct-vote primary like most other states. They use a caucus to allocate their delegates. This is pretty complicated process (especially on the Democratic side) and will simply refer you to the comprehensive series on DailyKos by desmoinesdem (Part One/Introduction, Part Nine/Index)
Now a summary of what may transpire tomorrow and what it could mean:
Barack Obama
Will win if: he succeeds in turning out a large contingent of young and other first-time caucus-goers. Also, it sounds like some of the lesser candidates may throw their delegates to Obama if they aren't shown to be viable.
If he wins: he has a chance to boost his chances in New Hampshire which could give him the momentum to carry South Carolina and a majority of the large states voting on February 5th.
Prediction: 1st
John Edwards
Will win if: turnout is low. Has a strong following in the activist and labor communities. Also has the advantage of having an experienced team on the ground and he's been here before (finished a strong second in Iowa in 2004).
If he wins: Edwards is still far enough behind in NH, that an Iowa win may not be enough to carry him to victory there, but if Obama finishes third in Iowa, he may be able to steal enough of Obama's anti-Hillary votes to win or finish a strong second which could give him enough momentum to carry through SC and to February 5th. Still would have a lot of work to do to win.
Prediction: a very close 2nd.
Hillary Clinton
Will win if: turnout is solid, but not strong among Obama's core constituency of first-time caucus-goers. Also will be helped if some of the lesser candidates reach the viability threshold (15%) to hang onto their delegates and not send them to Obama or Edwards.
If she wins: Hillary could be unstoppable. She leads in all of the upcoming states and doesn't need much help to follow through with a series of wins in NH, SC, and others.
Prediction: a very, very close 3rd.
The Field
Will win if: hell freezes over. A third place finish by any of the also-rans would be considered a huge victory, but...
If one of them wins: and by "wins" I mean finishes third, it would probably still not be enough to threaten either of the top two. However, it would be the death knell for whoever finished fourth.
Prediction: Less than 10% between them.
Basically, I think all three major candidates will all be around 30%. That's why turnout will be so important. Just a few extra delegates in the right precincts could swing this thing.
Okay, we won't know who the next president will be, because there's always a chance for unforeseen circumstances to arise. However, given the likely hostile environment to be faced by the Republican nominee, and the ridiculous fundraising advantages enjoyed by Democrats in general over the past year or so (particularly the numbers put up by Clinton and Obama), it's fair to say the odds favor the eventual Democratic nominee, though of course this is far from assured. The Democratic nominee (and likely the Republican as well) will be almost certainly known by the end of the day on February 5th which, in addition to being my 32nd birthday, is also the day that a huge number of states representing over a quarter of all delegates to the national conventions will hold their primaries. In actuality, we will probably know much sooner. This is because the huge role Iowa and New Hampshire play in choosing our presidential nominees. Yes, it's absurd that two small, predominantly white and rural states basically choose our options for President, but that's a rant for another post. You only need to go back four years for a prime example.
In 2004, Howard Dean was leading nationally and in New Hampshire by significant margins, but faced a tough battle in Iowa. One third place finish and a "scream," followed by a quick fade and disappointing loss in New Hampshire 10 days later, and Dean was toast (on the other hand, a second-place finish in Iowa propelled John Edwards to a win in South Carolina and the eventual vice-presidential nod).
So, suffice it to say, we'll know a great deal about the eventual Democratic nominee in just a few short days. The Republican situation is a bit more complicated, and this post is already looking to be a bit long-winded, so I'll save that for a future post. Hopefully I'll get a chance to write it before Iowans
Now a summary of what may transpire tomorrow and what it could mean:
Barack Obama
Will win if: he succeeds in turning out a large contingent of young and other first-time caucus-goers. Also, it sounds like some of the lesser candidates may throw their delegates to Obama if they aren't shown to be viable.
If he wins: he has a chance to boost his chances in New Hampshire which could give him the momentum to carry South Carolina and a majority of the large states voting on February 5th.
Prediction: 1st
John Edwards
Will win if: turnout is low. Has a strong following in the activist and labor communities. Also has the advantage of having an experienced team on the ground and he's been here before (finished a strong second in Iowa in 2004).
If he wins: Edwards is still far enough behind in NH, that an Iowa win may not be enough to carry him to victory there, but if Obama finishes third in Iowa, he may be able to steal enough of Obama's anti-Hillary votes to win or finish a strong second which could give him enough momentum to carry through SC and to February 5th. Still would have a lot of work to do to win.
Prediction: a very close 2nd.
Hillary Clinton
Will win if: turnout is solid, but not strong among Obama's core constituency of first-time caucus-goers. Also will be helped if some of the lesser candidates reach the viability threshold (15%) to hang onto their delegates and not send them to Obama or Edwards.
If she wins: Hillary could be unstoppable. She leads in all of the upcoming states and doesn't need much help to follow through with a series of wins in NH, SC, and others.
Prediction: a very, very close 3rd.
The Field
Will win if: hell freezes over. A third place finish by any of the also-rans would be considered a huge victory, but...
If one of them wins: and by "wins" I mean finishes third, it would probably still not be enough to threaten either of the top two. However, it would be the death knell for whoever finished fourth.
Prediction: Less than 10% between them.
Basically, I think all three major candidates will all be around 30%. That's why turnout will be so important. Just a few extra delegates in the right precincts could swing this thing.
posted by Nate Currie at
10:08 PM
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