Iowa Fallout
So, my predictions for the Dems were in the right ballpark, but turnout was even higher than my highest expectations. This drove Obama's margin from slim to convincing. For those not following elsewhere, the final count was Obama 37.6%, Edwards 29.8%, Hillary 29.5% (full results).
So, what's next?
Well, New Hampshire takes to the polls on Tuesday. Obama has already been trending upward and Hillary downward according to Pollster.com, but she still had a solid lead as of a few days ago. The withdrawal of Dodd and Biden could make a few more votes available, but their numbers were low enough that the impact should be minimal. In some ways, Edwards's strong showing in Iowa may actually have helped Hillary. Had he been defeated handily, his supporters might well have fled to Obama, as the most viable non-Hillary candidate.
Still, I think Obama has a great chance to turn his momentum from Iowa into a win in New Hampshire. If you haven't seen it, Obama's victory speech was pretty solid. We should have some new tracking polls out in the next day or two and I'm going to wait till those come out before going out on any limbs. If I had to guess now, I'd say Obama beats Hillary by about 3 points. Edwards finishes about 10 points back of that. I'll come out with a real prediction when I see some post-Iowa polling.
Now, what about the Republicans?
Huckabee laid the wood to Romney and the rest of the field, which wasn't entirely surprising given his recent surge and the number of religious conservatives in Iowa. New Hampshire is pretty much a must-win for Romney or McCain, since neither are likely to beat Huckabee in South Carolina. Unfortunately the Obama win does not bode well for McCain's chances in NH. Why does Obama matter in the Republican primary? Because in NH, independents can vote in either primary (but not both). In 2000 it was the independent vote that drove McCain to a surprise victory over Dubya in NH. Sadly for McCain, independents are also a huge part of Obama's support and it looks like a lot of them are going to choose to vote in the Dem primary (at least Obama better hope so). Right now, I'd have to say Romney has the advantage over the rest of the field in NH.
That's it for now. More in a day or so when I've got some more recent polling.
So, what's next?
Well, New Hampshire takes to the polls on Tuesday. Obama has already been trending upward and Hillary downward according to Pollster.com, but she still had a solid lead as of a few days ago. The withdrawal of Dodd and Biden could make a few more votes available, but their numbers were low enough that the impact should be minimal. In some ways, Edwards's strong showing in Iowa may actually have helped Hillary. Had he been defeated handily, his supporters might well have fled to Obama, as the most viable non-Hillary candidate.
Still, I think Obama has a great chance to turn his momentum from Iowa into a win in New Hampshire. If you haven't seen it, Obama's victory speech was pretty solid. We should have some new tracking polls out in the next day or two and I'm going to wait till those come out before going out on any limbs. If I had to guess now, I'd say Obama beats Hillary by about 3 points. Edwards finishes about 10 points back of that. I'll come out with a real prediction when I see some post-Iowa polling.
Now, what about the Republicans?
Huckabee laid the wood to Romney and the rest of the field, which wasn't entirely surprising given his recent surge and the number of religious conservatives in Iowa. New Hampshire is pretty much a must-win for Romney or McCain, since neither are likely to beat Huckabee in South Carolina. Unfortunately the Obama win does not bode well for McCain's chances in NH. Why does Obama matter in the Republican primary? Because in NH, independents can vote in either primary (but not both). In 2000 it was the independent vote that drove McCain to a surprise victory over Dubya in NH. Sadly for McCain, independents are also a huge part of Obama's support and it looks like a lot of them are going to choose to vote in the Dem primary (at least Obama better hope so). Right now, I'd have to say Romney has the advantage over the rest of the field in NH.
That's it for now. More in a day or so when I've got some more recent polling.
Labels: Iowa, New Hampshire, Politics
posted by Nate Currie at
4:38 PM
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