Next up, New Hampshire

As expected, Obama’s win in Iowa has resulted in a significant lead heading into New Hampshire. Clinton had a 4-10 point lead before the Iowa caucuses but, as in years past, Obama’s win in Iowa has translated into a significant bump in NH, South Carolina, and later states. With Obama almost certain to carry New Hampshire and South Carolina, it’s likely that the next significant state that Clinton will have a chance at will be Florida, leaving her to attempt to emulate Rudy Giuliani’s strategy of using a few wins in big states to overcome early losses. In all likelihood though, early momentum will be too significant for either to overcome. Hillary also has to worry about the possibility of Edwards dropping out and throwing his support to Obama, which would definitely speel the end for her.

Speaking of Republicans, it appears that John McCain has the inside track on winning New Hampshire, which should all but eliminate Mitt Romney from contention. The one thing he has to worry about is his dependence on independents who can vote in either primary (but not both). Obama’s popularity appears to indicate that most independents will vote in the Democratic primary to support him, rather than register their preference for McCain in Mike Huckabee is then virtually certain to win in South Carolina setting up a showdown in Florida with McCain (or Romney if he’s pulls out a win in New Hampshire) and Giuliani. Giuliani has been sitting out the early (and more conservative states in hopes of making a late run, so Florida is a must-win for him. McCain too must win to maintain his momentum going into February 5th, when several big states will be holding primaries.

So, for both Democrats and Republicans it seems likely that things will follow a set form until Florida. On the Democratic side, this will be Hillary’s last chance to make a move and possibly pick up some momentum heading into February 5th. For the Republicans, Florida will be Giuliani’s first chance to show he’s a real contender and also the first state likely to be legitimately contested by both McCain and Huckabee. In both cases, the winner will definitely have the inside track on “Super Tuesday.”