Next up, New Hampshire

As expected, Obama’s win in Iowa has resulted in a significant lead heading into New Hampshire. Clinton had a 4-10 point lead before the Iowa caucuses but, as in years past, Obama’s win in Iowa has translated into a significant bump in NH, South Carolina, and later states. With Obama almost certain to carry New Hampshire and South Carolina, it’s likely that the next significant state that Clinton will have a chance at will be Florida, leaving her to attempt to emulate Rudy Giuliani’s strategy of using a few wins in big states to overcome early losses. In all likelihood though, early momentum will be too significant for either to overcome. Hillary also has to worry about the possibility of Edwards dropping out and throwing his support to Obama, which would definitely speel the end for her.

Speaking of Republicans, it appears that John McCain has the inside track on winning New Hampshire, which should all but eliminate Mitt Romney from contention. The one thing he has to worry about is his dependence on independents who can vote in either primary (but not both). Obama’s popularity appears to indicate that most independents will vote in the Democratic primary to support him, rather than register their preference for McCain in Mike Huckabee is then virtually certain to win in South Carolina setting up a showdown in Florida with McCain (or Romney if he’s pulls out a win in New Hampshire) and Giuliani. Giuliani has been sitting out the early (and more conservative states in hopes of making a late run, so Florida is a must-win for him. McCain too must win to maintain his momentum going into February 5th, when several big states will be holding primaries.

So, for both Democrats and Republicans it seems likely that things will follow a set form until Florida. On the Democratic side, this will be Hillary’s last chance to make a move and possibly pick up some momentum heading into February 5th. For the Republicans, Florida will be Giuliani’s first chance to show he’s a real contender and also the first state likely to be legitimately contested by both McCain and Huckabee. In both cases, the winner will definitely have the inside track on “Super Tuesday.”

Iowa Fallout

So, my predictions for the Dems were in the right ballpark, but turnout was even higher than my highest expectations. This drove Obama's margin from slim to convincing. For those not following elsewhere, the final count was Obama 37.6%, Edwards 29.8%, Hillary 29.5% (full results).

So, what's next?

Well, New Hampshire takes to the polls on Tuesday. Obama has already been trending upward and Hillary downward according to Pollster.com, but she still had a solid lead as of a few days ago. The withdrawal of Dodd and Biden could make a few more votes available, but their numbers were low enough that the impact should be minimal. In some ways, Edwards's strong showing in Iowa may actually have helped Hillary. Had he been defeated handily, his supporters might well have fled to Obama, as the most viable non-Hillary candidate.

Still, I think Obama has a great chance to turn his momentum from Iowa into a win in New Hampshire. If you haven't seen it, Obama's victory speech was pretty solid. We should have some new tracking polls out in the next day or two and I'm going to wait till those come out before going out on any limbs. If I had to guess now, I'd say Obama beats Hillary by about 3 points. Edwards finishes about 10 points back of that. I'll come out with a real prediction when I see some post-Iowa polling.

Now, what about the Republicans?

Huckabee laid the wood to Romney and the rest of the field, which wasn't entirely surprising given his recent surge and the number of religious conservatives in Iowa. New Hampshire is pretty much a must-win for Romney or McCain, since neither are likely to beat Huckabee in South Carolina. Unfortunately the Obama win does not bode well for McCain's chances in NH. Why does Obama matter in the Republican primary? Because in NH, independents can vote in either primary (but not both). In 2000 it was the independent vote that drove McCain to a surprise victory over Dubya in NH. Sadly for McCain, independents are also a huge part of Obama's support and it looks like a lot of them are going to choose to vote in the Dem primary (at least Obama better hope so). Right now, I'd have to say Romney has the advantage over the rest of the field in NH.

That's it for now. More in a day or so when I've got some more recent polling.

The Caucuses are Coming!

For the inaugural (real) post of my blog, I had to talk about what can't help to be one of the top stories of 2008. Of course, I'm speaking of the Presidential election. For those who don't follow these things very closely, the election season kicks off Thursday (January 3) with the Iowa caucuses. Despite the fact that our national election is still eleven months away, one can make a reasonable argument that we may well know who our next president will be within the next few weeks, if not days.

Okay, we won't know who the next president will be, because there's always a chance for unforeseen circumstances to arise. However, given the likely hostile environment to be faced by the Republican nominee, and the ridiculous fundraising advantages enjoyed by Democrats in general over the past year or so (particularly the numbers put up by Clinton and Obama), it's fair to say the odds favor the eventual Democratic nominee, though of course this is far from assured. The Democratic nominee (and likely the Republican as well) will be almost certainly known by the end of the day on February 5th which, in addition to being my 32nd birthday, is also the day that a huge number of states representing over a quarter of all delegates to the national conventions will hold their primaries. In actuality, we will probably know much sooner. This is because the huge role Iowa and New Hampshire play in choosing our presidential nominees. Yes, it's absurd that two small, predominantly white and rural states basically choose our options for President, but that's a rant for another post. You only need to go back four years for a prime example.

In 2004, Howard Dean was leading nationally and in New Hampshire by significant margins, but faced a tough battle in Iowa. One third place finish and a "scream," followed by a quick fade and disappointing loss in New Hampshire 10 days later, and Dean was toast (on the other hand, a second-place finish in Iowa propelled John Edwards to a win in South Carolina and the eventual vice-presidential nod).

So, suffice it to say, we'll know a great deal about the eventual Democratic nominee in just a few short days. The Republican situation is a bit more complicated, and this post is already looking to be a bit long-winded, so I'll save that for a future post. Hopefully I'll get a chance to write it before Iowans take to the polls gather to horse-trade their votes. Yeah, that's another thing. Iowa does not have a direct-vote primary like most other states. They use a caucus to allocate their delegates. This is pretty complicated process (especially on the Democratic side) and will simply refer you to the comprehensive series on DailyKos by desmoinesdem (Part One/Introduction, Part Nine/Index)

Now a summary of what may transpire tomorrow and what it could mean:

Barack Obama

Will win if: he succeeds in turning out a large contingent of young and other first-time caucus-goers. Also, it sounds like some of the lesser candidates may throw their delegates to Obama if they aren't shown to be viable.

If he wins: he has a chance to boost his chances in New Hampshire which could give him the momentum to carry South Carolina and a majority of the large states voting on February 5th.

Prediction: 1st

John Edwards

Will win if: turnout is low. Has a strong following in the activist and labor communities. Also has the advantage of having an experienced team on the ground and he's been here before (finished a strong second in Iowa in 2004).

If he wins: Edwards is still far enough behind in NH, that an Iowa win may not be enough to carry him to victory there, but if Obama finishes third in Iowa, he may be able to steal enough of Obama's anti-Hillary votes to win or finish a strong second which could give him enough momentum to carry through SC and to February 5th. Still would have a lot of work to do to win.

Prediction: a very close 2nd.

Hillary Clinton

Will win if: turnout is solid, but not strong among Obama's core constituency of first-time caucus-goers. Also will be helped if some of the lesser candidates reach the viability threshold (15%) to hang onto their delegates and not send them to Obama or Edwards.

If she wins: Hillary could be unstoppable. She leads in all of the upcoming states and doesn't need much help to follow through with a series of wins in NH, SC, and others.

Prediction: a very, very close 3rd.

The Field

Will win if: hell freezes over. A third place finish by any of the also-rans would be considered a huge victory, but...

If one of them wins: and by "wins" I mean finishes third, it would probably still not be enough to threaten either of the top two. However, it would be the death knell for whoever finished fourth.

Prediction: Less than 10% between them.

Basically, I think all three major candidates will all be around 30%. That's why turnout will be so important. Just a few extra delegates in the right precincts could swing this thing.