Next up, New Hampshire

As expected, Obama’s win in Iowa has resulted in a significant lead heading into New Hampshire. Clinton had a 4-10 point lead before the Iowa caucuses but, as in years past, Obama’s win in Iowa has translated into a significant bump in NH, South Carolina, and later states. With Obama almost certain to carry New Hampshire and South Carolina, it’s likely that the next significant state that Clinton will have a chance at will be Florida, leaving her to attempt to emulate Rudy Giuliani’s strategy of using a few wins in big states to overcome early losses. In all likelihood though, early momentum will be too significant for either to overcome. Hillary also has to worry about the possibility of Edwards dropping out and throwing his support to Obama, which would definitely speel the end for her.

Speaking of Republicans, it appears that John McCain has the inside track on winning New Hampshire, which should all but eliminate Mitt Romney from contention. The one thing he has to worry about is his dependence on independents who can vote in either primary (but not both). Obama’s popularity appears to indicate that most independents will vote in the Democratic primary to support him, rather than register their preference for McCain in Mike Huckabee is then virtually certain to win in South Carolina setting up a showdown in Florida with McCain (or Romney if he’s pulls out a win in New Hampshire) and Giuliani. Giuliani has been sitting out the early (and more conservative states in hopes of making a late run, so Florida is a must-win for him. McCain too must win to maintain his momentum going into February 5th, when several big states will be holding primaries.

So, for both Democrats and Republicans it seems likely that things will follow a set form until Florida. On the Democratic side, this will be Hillary’s last chance to make a move and possibly pick up some momentum heading into February 5th. For the Republicans, Florida will be Giuliani’s first chance to show he’s a real contender and also the first state likely to be legitimately contested by both McCain and Huckabee. In both cases, the winner will definitely have the inside track on “Super Tuesday.”

Iowa Fallout

So, my predictions for the Dems were in the right ballpark, but turnout was even higher than my highest expectations. This drove Obama's margin from slim to convincing. For those not following elsewhere, the final count was Obama 37.6%, Edwards 29.8%, Hillary 29.5% (full results).

So, what's next?

Well, New Hampshire takes to the polls on Tuesday. Obama has already been trending upward and Hillary downward according to Pollster.com, but she still had a solid lead as of a few days ago. The withdrawal of Dodd and Biden could make a few more votes available, but their numbers were low enough that the impact should be minimal. In some ways, Edwards's strong showing in Iowa may actually have helped Hillary. Had he been defeated handily, his supporters might well have fled to Obama, as the most viable non-Hillary candidate.

Still, I think Obama has a great chance to turn his momentum from Iowa into a win in New Hampshire. If you haven't seen it, Obama's victory speech was pretty solid. We should have some new tracking polls out in the next day or two and I'm going to wait till those come out before going out on any limbs. If I had to guess now, I'd say Obama beats Hillary by about 3 points. Edwards finishes about 10 points back of that. I'll come out with a real prediction when I see some post-Iowa polling.

Now, what about the Republicans?

Huckabee laid the wood to Romney and the rest of the field, which wasn't entirely surprising given his recent surge and the number of religious conservatives in Iowa. New Hampshire is pretty much a must-win for Romney or McCain, since neither are likely to beat Huckabee in South Carolina. Unfortunately the Obama win does not bode well for McCain's chances in NH. Why does Obama matter in the Republican primary? Because in NH, independents can vote in either primary (but not both). In 2000 it was the independent vote that drove McCain to a surprise victory over Dubya in NH. Sadly for McCain, independents are also a huge part of Obama's support and it looks like a lot of them are going to choose to vote in the Dem primary (at least Obama better hope so). Right now, I'd have to say Romney has the advantage over the rest of the field in NH.

That's it for now. More in a day or so when I've got some more recent polling.